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REPORTMarket OutlookConquering Peaks2023RomaniaREAL ESTATECBRE RESEARCH2CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaContentsINDUSTRIALAt the end of 2022,Romanias industrial stock gathers 6.59 mln.sq m of modern spaces,as a record amount of new supply of 895,000 sq m were added throughout the year.04MACROECONOMICS2022 marks the second consecutive year of positive growth for Romanias economy following the global reset experienced in 2020.01RETAILSeventeen new entries opened stores in Romania throughout 2022.The continuous addition of modern products to the countrys retail stock and the well-known Romanian spending habit encouraged new companies from various industries to expand or enter the local market.05INVESTMENT2022 will be remembered as an exceptional year for the Romanian investment market,as the total investment volume exceeded the historical milestone of EUR 1.0 bln.by more than 25%.02LANDMore than 220 hectares of development land were transacted throughout Romania during 2022.In terms of future use and what buyers plan to develop on their newly acquired plots,the development sites with industrial potential were the most accounted for 41%of the overall transacted surface.06OFFICEThe total leasing activity in 2022 involved 295,300 sq m.The upward trend of transactional activity indicates a steady recovery of the leasing market and working at the office gaining a larger share in the hybrid working schedule.03MacroeconomicsBlazing New Trails4CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|Romania2022 marks the second consecutive year of positive growth for Romanias economy following the global reset experienced in 2020.The much-needed jumpstart recorded during the previous year,resulting in a V-shaped trend line for Romanias YoY evolution,created the momentum for a second year with economic growth.With an estimated 4.3%annual increase overall 2022,the countrys GDP managed to keep an upward trend despite arising challenges.Projections indicate a steady course of evolution with yearly growths of 2.0%in 2023 and 3.0%in 2024.When compared with the Eurozone,if in 2021 the GDP YoY growth was similar,forecasts for 2022 2024 period,indicate for Romania higher annual increases up to 2.1 pps(2.0%vs.-0.1%estimated for 2023).5CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:Oxford Economics,CBRE ResearchFigure 1:GDP(real)&Government balance(share of GDP)EvolutionThe optimistic outlook maintained as well regarding Romanias fiscal deficit which spiked in 2020 as a result of governments support during the pandemic.Showing signs of contraction since last year,the budget deficit is forecasted to decrease even further from an estimated-4.7%in 2022 to-3.5%in 2024.-4.7%in 2022 The budget deficit is forecasted to decrease-3.5%in 2024-12.0%-9.0%-6.0%-3.0%0.0%3.0%6.0%9.0 172018201920202021F 2022F 2023F 2024YoY growthRomania GDP real,annual growthEurozone GDP real,annual growthRomania Government balance,share of GDPEurozone Government balance,share of GDP6CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaimageSource:Oxford Economics,CBRE ResearchFigure 2:Unemployment Rate EvolutionPermanently below the Euro area average considering the analysed time frame,Romanias unemployment rate is set to constantly decrease on the short term.If for 2022 the unemployment rate is estimated at 5.4%,with 1.3 pps lower compared with the rate for Eurozone,for 2024 the prognosis indicates a compression down to 4.8%for Romania,value that sends further apart the comparison with the Euro region which is expected to register an unemployment rate of 7.1%in two years.0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9 172018201920202021F 2022F 2023F 2024RomaniaEurozone7CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:Oxford Economics,CBRE ResearchFigure 3:Consumer Price Index&Private Consumption EvolutionPrivate consumption in Romania maintains the ascendent trend,for 2022 being forecasted an YoY increase of 6.2%,percentage similar with the one registered for the previous year.Based on the short-term preview of this indicator,annual growths are forecasted for both 2023 and 2024 but at a slower pace compared with 2022.With 2.7%in 2023 and 3.5%in 2024,the yearly increases of private consumption indicate a more cautious approach for buyers mainly determined by increased commodity prices.The ongoing inflationary pressures contributed to the National Bank of Romania decision to increase further the monetary policy rate up to 6.75%from 6.25%.Nonetheless,the discrepancies between the core inflation and the banks prognosis,the key policy rate might face increases right from the beginning of 2023.For 2022,CPI inflation estimated for Romania reached at the highest peak in the analysed period,respectively at 13.8%,with 8.7 pps higher compared with the rate registered in 2021.The continuous prices increase of processed food and electricity contributed as well at the notable rise of the projected annual CPI inflation.Nonetheless,the short-term forecast reveal a decreasing tendency,down to 6.3%in 2024.3.5%in 2024 Annual growths are forecasted further,but at a slower pace compared to 20222.7%in 2023-10%-5%0%5 172018201920202021F 2022F 2023F 2024YoY GrowthRomania CPIEurozone CPIRomania Private ConsumptionEurozone Private Consumption8CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaIn 2022 Romania received EUR 6.3 bln.,consisting in the payment made by the European Commission in October 2022 of EUR 2.6 bln.related to the first request submitted by Romania.The positive sentiment that the country is set on a direction towards economic revival,reflected in the forecasts for indicators such as GDP annual growth,Unemployment rate,Government balance(share of GDP)are backed as well by the ongoing National Recovery and Resilience Plan(PNRR).By the end of 2022 Romania received EUR 6.3 bln.,consisting in the payment made by the European Commission in October 2022 of EUR 2.6 bln.related to the first request submitted by Romania,and two pre-financing tranches amounting EUR 3.7 bln.In the last month of the year,Romania submitted the request for second payment of circa EUR 3.2 bln.and what is noteworthy is that the submission was conditioned by the fulfilment of 51 targets through which are regulated key aspects such as decarbonisation,database interoperability for bureaucracy reduction and governmental cloud.2022 kept the momentum going in terms of economic growth.Inflicted by the forecasts of macroeconomic indicators such GDP,Private Consumption,Unemployment Rate as well as by the governments plans and actions,the feeling of recovery and further economic growths takes a stronger shape.Daniela GavrilHead of Research,CBRE RomaniaInvestmentScaling New Heights11CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 4:Investment Volume Evolution2022 will be remembered as an exceptional year for the Romanian investment market,as the total investment volume exceeded the historical milestone of EUR 1.0 bln.by more than 25%.The 2022 investment sum in quantum of EUR 1.25 bln.is 36%higher compared with the volume registered for the previous year and 25%higher when analysed against the last pre-pandemic year.Bucharest proved again to be the most liquid real estate market for Romania.Generating almost three quarters(respectively 69%)fromthe years total investment volume,the capital city upholds its leading position on the investors radars.Throughout the year,twenty-one deals were closed for properties located in the capital,having an average ticket size of EUR 41.1 mln.,a value which surpasses last years average by 8%.Regional,secondary and tertiary cities such as Cluj-Napoca,Oradea,Arad,Pitesti and Ploiesti contributed at the investment volume with fifteen transactions with and average deal size of EUR 25.7 mln.In 2022 the Romanian investment market reached the historical milestone of EUR 1.25 bln,which is 36%higher compared with the volume registered for the previous year.0200,000,000400,000,000600,000,000800,000,0001,000,000,0001,200,000,0001,400,000,000201720182019202020212022EURRomaniaBucharest12CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaNonetheless,what contributed at the years investment performance was the largest office transaction signed in Romania.The Austrians from CA Immo sold their office portfolio consisting of seven office buildings located in Bucharest with a combined gross leasable area of circa 165,000 sq m to the Romanians from Paval Holding.The deal with an estimated net price of EUR 377 mln.,marks not only a record deal for a Romanian investor but a record for the countrys investment market.13CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 5:Investment Volume By Sector EvolutionMore than half,meaning 62%of the investment volume was claimed by office sector,almost a quarter(24%)by retail and 7%by industrial segments.Hotel and assets from other sectors managed to jointly attract 7%of the total invested amount.For five consecutive years maintaining the leading position in the investment volume split by sector,the office segment recorded the most liquid properties.Figure 6:2022 Investment Volume By SectorHowever,alternating between the second and third place in the same analysed period,retail and industrial sectors are sought after by both local and foreign investors.Retail with a special focus on retail parks and industrial premises became more attractive for investors looking to place their money in Romania once the 2020 health crisis shifted the light towards this type of developments.0200,000,000400,000,000600,000,000800,000,0001,000,000,0001,200,000,0001,400,000,000201720182019202020212022EUROfficeRetailIndustrialHotelMixed-UseOtherResidential62$%7%4%3%OfficeRetailIndustrialHotelOthers14CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaThe biggest contribution to 2022 investment volume,the local investors contribute to Romania investment market grow into a more mature environment,that can be aligned with performant countries within CEE region.Source:CBRE ResearchFigure 7:2022 Investment Volume By Source Of Capital Romanian investors claim half of the years total investment volume,followed but at considerable distances by South Africans with a percentage of 15%and Austrians with 10%.With shares below 10%,investors from Belgium,UK,Hungary and Malta,cumulatively brought their capital for a quarter from the total volume.By investing their capital in real estate assets throughout the country,local players embedded a sentiment of stability on the medium and long term in the Romanian investment market.With sixteen deals with an average ticket size of EUR 38.7 mln.,and the biggest contribution to 2022 investment volume,the local investors contribute to Romania investment market grow into a more mature environment,that can be aligned with performant countries within CEE region.16 Large transactions in 202238.7MAverage ticket size in 202250%9%4%4%4%4%RomaniaSouth AfricaAustriaBelgiumUKHungaryMaltaOthers2022 can fairly be named an exceptional year for Romania investment market,as the total investment volume not only exceeded the EUR 1.0 bln.milestone but made a quarter from the second bln.EUR.When it comes to market liquidity,investors capital route indicates the preference for one location and one type of assets,respectively Bucharest and Office developments.Mihai PtrulescuHead of Investment Properties,CBRE RomaniaOfficeNew Horizons17CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 8:Modern Office Stock Evolution(New Supply I Vacancy)Bucharest office modern stock gathers at the end of 2022 circa 3.3 mln.sq m,as six office buildings with a total gross leasable area(GLA)of 124,400 sq m were inaugurated throughout the year.Four of the new delivered projects,representing 79%of the years new supply were delivered in the first half of the year,a period that capitalized on the momentum created at 2021 closing.Modern stock composition is changing,and its breakdown wont be exclusively between class A and B,but if green certified or not.With 74%of its office stock already green certified,Bucharest can accommodate companies compliant with ESG regulations,these certifications becoming an important requirement on the must have list.74%Of Bucharests office buildings are already green certified and compliant with ESG regulations 3.3 MBucharest office modern stock by the end of 2022sq m0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00.00.00.00.0000,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,000201720182019202020212022SQ MModern Office Stock New Supply(sq m)Vacancy Rate(%)18CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaCenter West sub-market received the largest share from the annual new supply,which translates in a share of 45%consisting of two projects:AFI Tech Park 2 with a GLA of 24,500 sq m developed by AFI EuropeSema Park II-Oslo&London office building of 31,500 leasable sq m developed by River DevelopmentWith almost a quarter of the new deliveries,the Center sub-market welcomed:the 21,000 leasable sq m Tandem building,a Forte Partners developmentHagags 7,000 leasable sq m Tudor ArgheziprojectThe North West and Floreasca/BarbuVacarescu office areas marked each a new addition to the modern stock,respectively:the first phase gathering a GLA of 21,000 sq m of Expo developed by Atenor Groupbuilding B having 19,400 leasable sq m of Equilibrium project developed by Skanska.ExpoEquilibrium(building B)Tandem buildingTudor ArgheziprojectAFI Tech Park 2Sema Park II(Oslo&London)19CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|Romania3182nter-WestCenterNorth-WestSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 9:Pipeline Distribution By Office Sub-market(U/C 2023)The forecasted new supply to be delivered by the end of 2023 gathers 112,500 sq m in five buildings,amount that will increase Bucharests modern to stock to 3.4 mln.sq m.With no remarkable differences between the areas to be inaugurated,the Center,North West and Center West office sub-markets will split the future new supply.Representing 38%from the total area,Center area will benefit of the delivery of the second phase of U-Center Campus which will have 35,000 sq m GLA developed by Forte Partners and the new project developed by Strabag,namely Arghezi 4 with 7,500 leasable sq m.The North West sub-market will welcome two new buildings also,one being represented by the second phase with 28,600 sq m of Expo developed by Atenor Group and Muse a 7,000 sq m project owned by Primavera Development.As concerns the Center West sub-market,it is expected to receive the second phase of One Uniteds project One Cotroceni with an estimated 34,500 sq m GLA.5New buildings to be delivered by end of 2023112,500New supply forecasted this year in Bucharestsq m20CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE Research*Net Absorption:changes in occupied stockFigure 10:New Supply Vs Demand&Vacancy Rate EvolutionThe total leasing activity(TLA)in 2022 involved 295,300 sq m,with 5%more than the value recorded for the previous year and with a bit over 20%compared with 2020.60%of the TLA was represented by take-up(total transactions excluding renewal/renegotiation)and in absolute figures recorded a 9%YoY increase.The upward trend on which transactional activity embarked in the post-pandemic era,indicates a steady recovery of the leasing market and working at the office gaining a larger share in the hybrid working schedule.From the annual take-up,14%of the leased area was directed towards pre-lease type of deals,percentage that points towards markets capability to immediately absorb the new demand.Moreover,the largest deal of the year was a pre-lease of 10,500 sq m secured in the second phase of One Cotroceni.The auspicious year for the leasing activity contoured since its first quarter,when Booking Holdings,a new company on the Romanian market,leased 9,000 sq m in U-Center Campus phase 1 developed by Forte Partners.Renewal/renegotiation transactions amounted 117,700 sq m,amount quite similar with the one registered in 2021.Amongst the largest transactions of the year,there could be find two Computers&Hi-Tech companies that chose to renew their contractual terms.295,300Total leasing activity(TLA)in 2022sq m10,500The largest deal of the year,secured in the second phase of One Cotroceni.sq m60%of the TLA was represented by take-up 0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00.00.00.00.00%-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000201720182019202020212022SQ MTake-up(sq m)New Supply(sq m)Net Absorption(sq m)*Vacancy Rate(%)21CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaAs the forecast at the end of 2021 envisioned,2022 proved to be a mature year in terms of consolidated strategies that balance employees safety,hybrid work options with office disruption proof planning.Nowadays,the hybrid workplace is a work in progress out of which employers must make the most of in order to ensure a successful return to the office,designing an inclusive concept.We know for sure that the office is the place for interaction between employees and team working but what about the employees that thrived working remotely.These fine intertwines are the unknowns that the new workplace must address to build communities in the most human centered way.22CBRE RESEARCH 2023 CBRE,INC.Conquering PeaksReal Estate Market Outlook 2023|RomaniaSource:CBRE ResearchFigure 11:2022 Total Leasing Activity By Sub-marketLeasing deals were signed throughout all eleven office sub-markets in 2022,but the Center West area managed to attract over a quarter from total TLA.Closely followed by Center and Floreasca/Barbu Vacarescu with shares of 21%and 20%,the three sub-markets were the most sought after in Bucharest and managed to jointly close no more than 70%from the total area subject to lease throughout the year.Figure 12:2022 Total Leasing Activity By Domain of ActivityComputers&Hi-Tech sector dominates once again the transactional activity,being responsible for 43%of the leased area.Placing on the second and third places as main sources of demand for office areas,Consumer Services&Leisure and Professional sectors together managed to secure leases for almost the same total area as generated by companies from Computers&Hi-Tech domain.28!